Post-Pandemic Migration Has Reshaped Rural Population Change

After losing population for much of the 2010s, rural areas have been consistently gaining population in the post-pandemic era. This shift has been driven by increases in domestic and international migration, which together offset substantial natural population loss (more deaths than births) in recent years. There has been variation within this trend, however, and while some rural communities have experienced rapid change, others are at higher risk of near-term population loss.

Leading up to the pandemic, rural areas—here defined as non-metropolitan counties—had an overall aggregate population loss of 60,000 people from 2017–2020. In the post-pandemic period from 2021–2024, however, this became an overall aggregate gain of 430,000 people (Figure 1). This growth was driven by a sharp increase in domestic migration and a smaller increase in international migration, which together offset aggregate natural population loss.

Figure 1: Domestic Migration Became Central to Rural Area Growth in Recent Years

Notes: Data are aggregated population change estimates for non-metro counties. PEP estimates are from July–July, so data from July 2019–July 2020 are included in the first (pre-pandemic) period.

Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, Vintages 2020 and 2024 Population Estimates, and USDA, 2023 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes.

Aggregate net domestic migration in rural counties flipped from a net outflow of 100,000 people from 2017–2020 to a net inflow of 670,000 people from 2021–2024. This was shaped by lower out-migration and elevated in-migration, especially from homebuyers, and was part of a wider trend of elevated migration to lower-density areas. A smaller but still substantial increase in immigration helped offset natural loss, which grew from 80,000 to 540,000 people. This steep loss is part of a national trend of declining births and rising deaths that has been acute in non-metropolitan counties, due in part to their older populations: the median age of people living in non-metro counties was 43 in 2023, fully five years older than in metro counties, according to the American Community Survey. However, domestic and/or international migration were large enough to completely offset natural population loss in three-quarters of the non-metro counties with post-pandemic population growth (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Migration Offset Natural Loss in Most Rural Counties with Post-Pandemic Population Growth

Notes: Change is aggregated from 2021–2024. Natural population change is the difference between births and deaths in the resident population. Components in tooltip may not exactly add to total population change due to residuals in PEP data.

Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates Program.

Despite the overall trend, many rural areas have not had a substantial increase in net migration since the pandemic. This is especially true for more remote rural counties, which saw limited increases in migration compared to rural counties that are adjacent to metro areas (Figure 3). Consequently, migration barely offset natural loss in these non-adjacent counties, putting them at higher risk of near-term population loss given the recent slowdown in immigration.

Figure 3: More Isolated Rural Areas At Risk of Population Loss

Notes: Data are aggregated population change estimates for non-metro counties. PEP estimates are from July–July, so data from July 2019–July 2020 are included in the first (pre-pandemic) period.

Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, Vintages 2020 and 2024 Population Estimates, and USDA, 2023 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes.

Rural areas have experienced substantial population change in recent years, with remarkable increases in both net in-migration and natural population loss. Many of these communities have adapted to post-pandemic population growth and the consequent effects of new migrants, both domestic and international. Other communities, especially more remote ones, had much weaker post-pandemic population growth and face an entirely different outlook as natural loss is projected to continue, immigration levels are shrinking, and their recent increase in domestic migration was limited. These trends will likely increase demographic differences among rural areas, underscoring the importance of recognizing that these communities are not monolithic.