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Note: This paper was updated in December 2025 with an addendum that adds a low-immigration scenario, reflecting the increased likelihood that population gains from net international immigration in 2025–2035 may be lower than those in the middle-series projections used in the original analyses. Download the full paper with addendum by clicking the "Read Full Paper" button above or download the addendum only.
This paper extends the demographically driven 2025 household projections to include household counts by tenure through 2035 under three scenarios for future homeownership rates. The scenarios include one where homeownership rates remain constant by age and race over the next ten years, essentially isolating how changes in the age and racial composition of the population will influence homeownership rates, all else equal. This baseline scenario results in an overall homeownership rate that remains constant in 2025–2035. A second scenario has each age and race group maintain a historically average trajectory for homeownership as they age over the next ten years, which effectively represents a case of modest growth in overall rates. This scenario leads to a 0.8 percentage point rise in the overall homeownership rate in 2025–2035. A third scenario has younger cohorts follow historically low trajectories for homeownership as they age over the next ten years, which is intended to reflect the potential for today’s current affordability challenges to limit transitions for young adults over the coming decade. This scenario represents a case of modest declines in overall rates and results in a -1.6 percentage point decline in the overall homeownership rate in 2025–2035. The scenarios were designed to provide estimates of the most plausible range of variation in homeownership rates that would be expected under normal market conditions, and not the full range of changes in homeownership rates possible if conditions change. Indeed, much more dramatic swings in homeownership rates are certainly possible, as the experience of the early 2000s illustrates.
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The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies strives to improve equitable access to decent, affordable homes in thriving communities. We conduct rigorous research to advance policy and practice, and we bring together diverse stakeholders to spark new ideas for addressing housing challenges. Through teaching and fellowships, we mentor and inspire the next generation of housing leaders.
