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Housing Perspectives

Research, trends, and perspective from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

Continued Gains Projected for Remodeling Amid Economic Uncertainty

Annual expenditures for improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes are expected to grow modestly through 2026, according to our latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA). The LIRA projects that year-over-year spending for home renovation and repair will increase by 2.5 percent to reach a record $526 billion by the first quarter of 2026.

A slight downturn after the pandemic’s record expenditures gave way to modest gains in the sector this year. Recent increases in the sales of existing homes are expected to drive slow but steady growth in home remodeling and repair.

So far, high home values and other strong economic indicators have supported an uptick in homeowner improvement spending. However, economic volatility due to the uncertainty surrounding foreign tariffs and falling consumer confidence could well dampen this expected growth.

Click image for full-size chart.

Column and line chart providing quarterly historical estimates and projections of homeowner improvement and repair spending from 2022-Q2 to 2026-Q1 as four-quarter moving sums and rates of change. Year-over-year spending growth accelerated from 19.6% in 2022-Q2 to a peak of 26.6% in 2022-Q4 before softening rapidly down to 4.4% by 2023-Q3. Year-over-year spending declines in 2023-Q4 through 2024-Q4 are estimated to have reached a bottom at a rate of -2.3% in 2024-Q3. Annual rates of change turned positive again beginning in 2025-Q1 at 0.5% and are expected to accelerate to 2.5% through 2026-Q1. Annual spending levels are expected to increase from $513 billion in 2025-Q1 to $526 billion in 2026-Q1.

For more information, visit the LIRA page of our website.