Tenure Projections of Homeowner and Renter Households for 2018-2038
Following the rise and fall in the U.S. homeownership rate over the past two decades, considerable uncertainty exists about its future trajectory. This paper presents our tenure projections for 2018-2038, which build on the household projections in McCue (2018). The initial sections of the paper review the range of factors that contribute to homeownership rate outcomes and discuss alternative methodologies for constructing tenure projections. The paper then presents our tenure projections for 2018-2038 under three different scenarios for the overall homeownership rate. Given the recent volatility in the homeownership rate, these scenarios provide insight about the implications of alternative homeownership rate trajectories for the number and distribution of homeowner and renter households by age group, race/ethnicity, and family type.