March 27, 2014
W14-1: This paper updates the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) household projections by incorporating updates to its three key data inputs: the Census Bureau 2012 Population Projections (released in late 2012 and early 2013) and headship rates (ratios of households per person) derived from the 2011-2013 Current Population Estimates and Current Population Survey March Supplements. Aside from the new data, the JCHS projection methodology remains largely unchanged from that used to create the 2010 series. However, the 2013 JCHS household projections no longer involve adjustments to the Census Bureau population series in the form of downward revisions in the Census Bureau’s estimates of immigration levels, which now are in keeping with previous JCHS estimates. Additionally, in using the 2012 Census population projections as published, the 2013 JCHS household projections now contain high, middle, and low series, whereas the 2010 projections only had a high and a low series. The projections are also carried out an additional ten years, and so now extend to 2035.
The results of the 2013 JCHS household projections are largely consistent with those from 2010. The range of household growth levels in the 2013 high, middle, and low series roughly corresponds to that from the 2010 high and low projections. For example, for 2015-2025, the new 2013 projections call for annual household growth rates ranging from 1.16 million in the low series to 1.32 million in the high series, not far from the span of 1.15–1.36 million per year in the 2010 JCHS projections.
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