November 01, 2007

Projecting the Underlying Demand for New Housing Units: Inferences from the Past, Assumptions about the Future

Eric S. Belsky, Rachel Bogardus Drew, Daniel McCue

W07-7: This paper examines the challenges of projecting the long-run sustainable demand for new residential construction and presents a range of estimates for the likely demand for new housing over the period from 2005 through 2014. Making long-run projections requires assumptions about the three elements of the demand for new homes: 1) the demand for additional units to accommodate household growth, 2) the demand for new units to replace existing units lost on net from the stock, and 3) the demand for additional second homes and vacant units for rent or sale that accommodate the normal turnover of a larger housing stock…

Category: Working Papers

Read More About: Housing Markets & Conditions