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PRESS RELEASE CONTACT: Elizabeth England: (617) 495-7640 October 21, 2008
(The next LIRA release date is January 22, 2009.) Erosion of Homeowner Remodeling Spending Continues CAMBRIDGE, MA – The weak economy and uncertainty in housing markets remain key hurdles for remodeling activity according to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) points to homeowner improvement spending declining at an annual rate of 12% by the second quarter of 2009. “Falling home prices and job losses contribute to reduced spending on homeowner improvements,” explains Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “Any remodeling rebound must be accompanied by stability in the housing market.” “There are a few hopeful signs that we may be nearing a cyclical low point for home improvement activity,” notes Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program of the Joint Center. “Existing home sales appear to be stabilizing and interest rates for financing home improvements are favorable. However, other market indicators continue to deteriorate,” cautions Baker.
The second quarter 2008 release introduced a re-benchmarked LIRA, which was necessitated by the recent discontinuation of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Residential Improvements and Repairs Statistics, also known as the C-50 series. The LIRA now projects future trends in homeowner improvement activity, where previously it estimated trends in both owner improvements and maintenance and repairs. A full description of the re-benchmarking of the LIRA can be found in “Addendum to Research Note N07-1: Re-Benchmarking the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity” (N08-1). The LIRA is released quarterly (April, July, October and January) by the Joint Center’s Remodeling Futures Program during the third week after each quarter’s closing. The next release date is January 22, 2009. The LIRA measures and projects only a portion of the U.S. home improvement market, namely spending by homeowners on property improvements. Other components of the broader market, such as homeowner maintenance and repairs, rental improvements, and rental maintenance and repairs, are not included in the LIRA figures. The Joint Center’s Policy Advisory Board and other industry sponsors support the Remodeling Futures Program. The development of the LIRA was detailed in “Developing a Leading Indicator for the Remodeling Industry” (N07-1). The Joint Center for Housing Studies is Harvard University’s center for information and research on housing in the United States. Established in 1959, the Joint Center is a collaborative unit affiliated with the Graduate School of Design and the Harvard Kennedy School. The Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies is Nicolas P. Retsinas. For more information, visit www.jchs.harvard.edu. Future LIRA release dates: January 22, 2009 – Fourth Quarter 2008 -END- For
more information about the Joint Center and its programs, |
